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NOAA NCTR experimental research product Not an official forecast

Tohoku (East Coast of Honshu) Tsunami, March 11, 2011
Model and Data Comparison Plots

Tohoku Tsunami Event Page | Web Link Compilation | Model and Data Comparison Plots

Model and DART® buoy data / tide gauge data comparison

• Comparison of the March 11, 2011 Honshu tsunami recorded at DARTs and sea-level gauges in the Pacific and along U.S. coastlines with model forecasts. The DART model timeseries are obtained from the pre-computed generation/propagation forecast database in real time, after fitting models to tsunami records from two closest DARTs (21418 and 21401). The flooding forecast models (high-resolution inundation models for coastal locations) were run in real time before the tsunami reached the locations shown. The model data for Hawaii, the U.S. West Coast and South America show 3 to 15 minute early arrival (less than 2.5% error accumulated during the propagation simulation). The plots show model data for those locations with time shifted later for comparison purposes. (see References, below).
  
  Tide Gauges
  
  • U.S. West Coast
  • Alaska
  • Hawaii and Oceania
  • Chile
  
  DARTs
  
  • Comparison of model data with DART® data
    
    

    21418: 450 NM NE of Tokyo, Japan	46402: 240 NM South of Dutch Harbor, AK	43412: 240 NM Southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
    21401: Near 209 NM SE of Kuril Islands	46403: 230 NM Southeast of Shumagin Island, AK	43413: 360 NM South-Southwest of Acapulco, Mexico
    21413: 690 NM SE of Tokyo, Japan	46408: NW Pacific South of AK	46404: 230 NM West of Astoria, OR
    21419: 209 NM SE of Kuril Islands	46409: 240 NM Southeast of Kodiak, AK	46407: 210 NM West of Coos Bay, OR
    21414: 184 NM SW of Adak, AK	46410: 330 NM Southeast of Anchorage, AK	46411: 260 NM Northwest of San Francisco, CA
    21415: 175 NM S of Attu, AK	51407: 140 NM Southeast of Honolulu, HI	46412: 190 NM West-Southwest of San Diego, CA
    21416: 240 NM SE of Kamchatka Peninsula	32401: 260 NM West-Southwest of Arica Chile	51406: 2900 NM Southeast of Hawaii
    52402: 790 NM Northwest of Kwajalein	32411: 710 NM West-Southwest of Panama City, Panama	51425: 370 NM NW of Apia, Samoa
    52403: 430 NM Southwest of Truk	32412: 630 NM Southwest of Lima, Peru	55012: STB Coral Sea
    52406: 450 NM Northeast of the Guadalcanal	32413: 1000 NM WNW of Lima, Peru	55023: STB Coral Sea

Disclaimer: The forecasts on these pages show the results of ongoing research to enhance tsunami science and to improve NOAA operational tsunami forecasts. These products were developed during or shortly after the tsunami event, are intended for research use, and are not an official forecast. They should not be used as the basis of any public or private policy decisions. Please contact NCTR to find if there are more detailed follow-on analysis results.

Click to see NCTR metadata.

References:

Tang, L., V. V. Titov, and C. D. Chamberlin (2009), Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C12025, doi:10.1029/2009JC005476. [PDF version]

Titov, V.V. (2009): Tsunami forecasting. Chapter 12 in The Sea, Volume 15: Tsunamis, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA and London, England, 371–400.

Wei, Y., E. Bernard, L. Tang, R. Weiss, V. Titov, C. Moore, M. Spillane, M. Hopkins, and U. Kânoğlu (2008): Real-time experimental forecast of the Peruvian tsunami of August 2007 for U.S. coastlines. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L04609, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032250. [PDF Version]

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