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NOAA NCTR research product
Not an official forecast

The Solomon Islands tsunami was generated by a Mw 7.0 earthquake (10.444°S 165.172°E ), at 2015-07-18 02:27:33 UTC, 78km (48mi) W of Lata, Solomon Islands (according to the USGS). In approximately 10 minutes, the tsunami was first recorded at Lata tide gauge, Solomon Islands. Approximately 30 minutes later, the tsunami was recorded at tsunameter/DART® buoy 52406. Forecast results shown below were created with the NOAA forecast method using MOST model with the tsunami source inferred from tsunameter/DART® data.

The graphics display research forecast results, showing qualitative and quantitative information about the tsunami, including tsunami wave interaction with ocean floor bathymetric features, and neighboring coastlines. Tsunami model amplitude information is shown color-coded according the scale bar. Offshore tsunami wave amplitude was forecasted based on actual tsunami observations at DART 52406 and was not based on any particular earthquake mechanism.

Modeling Results

Model and DART® buoy data/ tide gauge sea level data comparisons

Comparison of the July 18, 2015 Solomon Islands tsunami recorded at tsunameter/DARTs and tide gauges with model results. The DART model time series are obtained from the pre-computed generation/propagation forecast database in real time, after fitting models to tsunami records from the DARTs.

A preliminary high-resolution model for Lata tide gauge comparison was developed using available, unverified bathymetry data. The propagation forecast was used as input for the high-resolution model. While the general agreement of amplitudes and periods correlate well with the data, the maximum amplitude of the model trails the observations. This may be due to influence of the poor bathymetry data and background noise of the observation time series.

Disclaimer: The forecasts on these pages show the results of ongoing research to enhance tsunami science and to improve NOAA operational tsunami forecasts. These products were developed during or shortly after the tsunami event, are intended for research use, and are not an official forecast. They should not be used as the basis of any public or private policy decisions. Please contact NCTR to find if there are more detailed follow-on analysis results.

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