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NOAA NCTR research product
Not an official forecast

The Pijijiapan, Mexico tsunami was generated by a Mw 8.1 earthquake (15.068°N 93.715°W), at 2017-09-08 04:49:21 UTC (according to the USGS). The first peak of tsunami was detected at the Salina Cruz tide gauge, Mexico, about 36 min after the earthquake. 27 min later, a tsunami peak of 8 cm was observed at DART 43413 located 840 km southwest from the epicenter. Model results shown below were created with the NOAA forecast method using MOST model with the tsunami source inferred from epicenter location and magnitude (Mw 8.1) of the earthquake.

The graphics display preliminary modeling analysis, showing qualitative and quantitative information about the tsunami, including tsunami wave interaction with ocean floor bathymetric features, and neighboring coastlines. Tsunami model amplitude information is shown color-coded according to the scale bar.

Modeling Results

Maximum wave amplitude distribution
Model amplitudes calculated with the MOST forecast model.
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Propagation animation
Propagation animation: Mercator Projection | Spherical Projection
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Preliminary model and DART® buoy data/ tide gauge sea level data comparisons

Comparison of the September 8, 2017 Pijijiapan, Mexico tsunami recorded at tsunameter/DARTs and tide gauges with model results. The DART model time series are obtained from the pre-computed generation/propagation forecast database after fitting models to tsunami records from the DARTs.

DART comparisons with model data

DART® comparisons with model data
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Tide gauge comparisons with model data

Tide gauge comparisons with model data
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Pacific tide gauge comparisons with model data

Tide gauge comparisons with model data
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It is noted that all above model results are preliminary at this point. The tsunami source is estimated from inversion of observed waveforms at DARTs using high-angle normal-fault unit sources. The discrepancies between model results and tide gauge observation are mostly due to our limited knowledge of the earthquake/tsunami source configuration at this point, as well as lack of accurate bathymetry at some of the tide gauge locations.

Disclaimer: The models on these pages show the results of ongoing research to enhance tsunami science and to improve NOAA operational tsunami forecasts. These products were developed during or shortly after the tsunami event, are intended for research use, and are not an official forecast. They should not be used as the basis of any public or private policy decisions. Please contact NCTR to find if there are more detailed follow-on analysis results.

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