This Kermadec tsunami was generated by a Mw 7.2 earthquake (30.805°S 178.095°W), at 2019-06-15 22:55:02 UTC (according to the USGS). A small tsunami was observed seventeen minutes after the earthquake at the nearby tide gauge of Raoul Island Boat Cove, New Zealand, with the leading tsunami wave amplitude of 5 cm . The first wave peak of the tsunami at deep-ocean station DART 51426, located 1,300 km northeast from the epicenter, was detected about 1.5 hours after the earthquake. Model results shown below were created with the NOAA forecast method using the MOST model that include quick forecast assessment using the first USGS estimate of the Moment Tensor solution (Mw 7.2) published 37 minutes after the earthquake.

The graphics display preliminary modeling analysis, showing qualitative and quantitative information about the tsunami, including tsunami wave interaction with ocean floor bathymetric features, and neighboring coastlines. Tsunami model amplitude information is shown colored according to the scale bar.

Modeling Results

Model amplitudes calculated with the MOST forecast model. Click to see large image.

Propagation animation Click for animation.

• Model amplitudes calculated with the MOST forecast model. Filled colors show maximum computed tsunami amplitude in cm during 24 hours of wave propagation.
  • Maximum wave amplitude
    
• Propagation animation on YouTube

DART® comparisons with model data

• Composite plot: DART 51426

Tide gauge comparisons with model data: Raoul Island, Great Barrier Island, and East Cape, New Zealand. It is noted that all above model results are preliminary. The discrepancies between model results and tide gauge observations are mostly due to our limited knowledge of the earthquake/tsunami source configuration and uncertainties of the local bathymetry around tide gages.

Tide gauge comparisons with model data

• Composite plot: Raoul Island Boat Cove, East Cape, Great Barrier Island

Comparison of the June 15, 2019 New Zealand tsunami recorded at the tsunameter (DART buoy) and tide gauges with model results. The wave propagation and local model around tide-gage resulting from the CMT-based source was computed on the fly while the tsunami was still progressing.