Not an official forecast
Puerto Madero, Mexico Tsunami, July 17, 2026
Main Event Page
The July 17, 2026, Puerto Madero, Mexico tsunami was generated by a Mw 7.3 earthquake (14.604°N 92.952°W), at 2026-07-17 14:48:39 UTC (according to the USGS). The resulting tsunami was first detected by the Puerto Chiapas/Madero tide gauge (~58 km ENE from the earthquake epicenter), and a maximum wave peak of 40 cm arrived approximately 56 minutes after the earthquake. Maximum tsunami amplitudes measured at other tide stations along Central America's coastlines are generally below 20 cm.
Approximately 1 hour and 10 minutes following the earthquake, DART 43413—positioned roughly 880 km southwest of the epicenter—registered a deep-ocean tsunami signal measuring around 1 cm. A model scenario with optimum fit to this DART signal was created through a data inversion procedure. Model results shown below were created with the NOAA forecast method using the MOST model via inversion of the source.
Global Tsunami Propagation Forecast
The Puerto Madero tsunami propagation forecast model, shown in the figure above, was created using the NOAA forecast method. This method combines pre-computed "unit source" solutions to fit DART observations. The tsunami source of the Puerto Madero tsunami is estimated from inversion of observed waveforms at only one DART 43413. The filled colors on the figure indicate the maximum computed tsunami amplitude in meters over 24 hours of wave propagation. Additionally, the dynamics of the tsunami's propagation across the Pacific are visualized in the animation below.
Coastal Forecast Model Results
Coastal tsunami forecasts were generated using a two-tiered modeling approach. The initial basin-wide tsunami propagation model provided input for higher-resolution coastal forecasts.
For Mexico's coastline, two site-specific models were developed on the fly during the event using Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). These simulations used a grid resolution of 3 arc sec (approximately 90 m) around the sea-level gauge locations to model tsunami amplitudes.
In contrast, the model for Baltra, Galapagos Island was pre-existing, developed for SIFT operations, and featured a higher grid resolution.
Comparison of the July 17, 2026 Puerto Madero tsunami recorded at tsunameter/DARTs and tide gauges (black line) with model results computed using the DART-inverted source (red line) is presented in the graphics below. The DART model time series are obtained from the pre-computed generation/propagation forecast database, after automatically fitting models to tsunami records from DART 43413.
- DART® comparisons with model data
- Coastal Tide Gauge Comparisons with Model Data
- Source inversion: 0.6*cs18b + 0.4*cs18a
It is noted that all above model results are preliminary. The tsunami source is estimated from inversion of observed waveforms at only one DART using a limited number of unit sources. The discrepancies between model results and tide gauge observation are mostly due to relatively low-quality and low-resolution DEMs in shallow water regions.
Disclaimer: The models on these pages show the results of ongoing research to enhance tsunami science and to improve NOAA operational tsunami forecasts. These products were developed during or shortly after the tsunami event, are intended for research use, and are not an official forecast. They should not be used as the basis of any public or private policy decisions. Please contact NCTR to find if there are more detailed follow-on analysis results.
For media inquiries:
When using information from this page, please credit NOAA / PMEL / Center for Tsunami Research
