Puget Sound Tsunami Sources Workshop

Parameter Estimates Matrix

by Stephen P. Palmer, WA-DNR

Subaerial Landslide Scenario -- Historic Precedent

Source Type:   Site-specific source, based on 1949 Tacoma Narrows landslide (based on Chle borad, 1994)

Parameter Probable Range of Values
(MKS Units)
Confidence in Your Estimate
(On a scale of 0-10)
Probability of Occurrence
(% prob. in N yrs)
Location

Slope north of Tacoma Narrows bridge -- analogous to other steep bluffs along the Puget Sound?

line 5 Less than 100% in 50 years (recurrence interval of at least 50 years)
Geometry Length:   150 m

Width:   120 m

Thickness:   8 m

Volume:   1.5 x 105 m3

5 Geometry of 1949 landslide well defined
Speed 7.5 tp 15 m/s 5 5 to 10 seconds for slide to occur divided by half length
Slope Angle 35 degrees 9  
Aspect Parallel to slope fall line 9