Puget Sound Tsunami Sources Workshop
Parameter Estimates Matrix
by Stephen P. Palmer, WA-DNR
Delta Failure Scenario -- Historic Precedent
Source Type: Site-specific source, using 1894 Commencement Bay submarine landslide as an archetype
Parameter |
Probable Range
of Values (MKS Units) |
Confidence in Your Estimate (On a scale of 0-10) |
Probability of
Occurrence (% prob. in N yrs) |
Location Major river deltas in priority areas 1, 3, and 4 |
![]() |
9 | Less than 50% in 50 years (recurrence interval of at least 100 years) |
Geometry |
Length: 400 m
Width: 300 m Thickness: 20 m Volume: 2.4 x 106 m3 |
5 | Geometry of this landslide well defined |
Speed |
Determined by back calculation using the 1894 Commencement Bay slide geometry and reported wave height |
5, once analyzed | |
Slope Angle | 15 degrees (4H:1V) | 9 | |
Aspect | Parallel to delta slope fall line | 6 |