Puget Sound Tsunami Sources Workshop

Parameter Estimates Matrix

by Stephen P. Palmer, WA-DNR

Delta Failure Scenario -- Historic Precedent

Source Type:   Site-specific source, using 1894 Commencement Bay submarine landslide as an archetype

Parameter Probable Range of Values
(MKS Units)
Confidence in Your Estimate
(On a scale of 0-10)
Probability of Occurrence
(% prob. in N yrs)
Location

Major river deltas in priority areas 1, 3, and 4

line 9 Less than 50% in 50 years (recurrence interval of at least 100 years)
Geometry Length:   400 m

Width:   300 m

Thickness:   20 m

Volume:   2.4 x 106 m3

5 Geometry of this landslide well defined
Speed Determined by back
calculation using the 1894
Commencement Bay slide geometry and reported
wave height
5, once analyzed  
Slope Angle 15 degrees (4H:1V) 9  
Aspect Parallel to delta slope fall line 6