Puget Sound Tsunami Sources Workshop

NOAA's Center for Tsunami Inundation Mapping Efforts (TIME)
US Geological Survey
Washington State Emergency Management Division

• Workshop Venue

  • 10 June 2002

  • NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
    7600 Sand Point Way NE
    Seattle, WA 98115

  • PMEL Main Conference Room (The Oceanographer Room)

  • Visitor Information: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/visitor/visitor-info.html

• Workshop Agenda

  Duration: 8:30 am to 4:30 pm, with Lunch Break

  1. Introduction
  2. Presentation/discussion of candidate source scenario matrices
  3. Three teams break-out, each to focus on one source type:
     • Earthquakes in the three high-priority areas
     • Landslides in the three high-priority areas
     • Delta failures in the three high-priority areas
  4. Teams report results
  5. Summary and wrap-up

• Workshop Background Information ( version)

  1. Background
  2. Purpose
  3. Strategy
  4. Structure and Agenda
  5. Appendix A:
     • Examples of Modeling and Emergency Management Products
  6. Appendix B:
     • Scenario Matrix Templates
  
  

• Strawman Source Scenarios

  • Subaerial Landslides
  • Palmer: Historic Precedent, based on 1949 Tacoma Narrows
  • Shipman: Table of Potential Scenarios. The Fall of Camano Head: A Snohomish account of a large landslide and tsunami in Possession Sound during the early 1800s. TsuInfo Alert, 3, 6, 13-14.
  • Baum: Comments on Deep-seated Landslides in Seattle
  • Sherrod: Potential Landslide Scenario
  
  
  • Delta Failures
  • Palmer: Historic Precedent, based on 1894 Commencement Bay
    
  • Palmer: Extreme Event, based on 1964 Valdez Earthquakes
  
  
  • Earthquakes
  • Sherrod: Design Source of Seattle Fault
  • We're interested in more contributions of events on the Utsalady, South Whidbey, and Tacoma fault zones.
  
  

• Workshop Data and Materials

  • Available Online
  • Map of Three Priority Areas. Compiled by workshop organizers.
  • Evidence for Pre-historic Tsunamis. Compiled by Brian Atwater (USGS).
  • annotated bibliography.
  • Possible Evidence for Tsunami at Kenmore (Sammamish River Outlet). Provided by Robert Thorson (UConn).
  • Shoreline Stratigraphy of Lake Washington: Implications for Holocene Crustal Strain and Earthquake Recurrence in the Cascadia Forearc (Microsoft Word document) Text of Poster Session for Cascadia Penrose Conference, June 2000. Robert M. Thorson. Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Connecticut, Storrs CT, 06269. thorson@geol.uconn.edu. Phone 860-486-1396.
  
  
  • Slope Stability Analyses. From Coastal Zone Atlas of Washingtion, published by
    WA Dept of Ecology.
  • A preliminary finite-element analysis of a shallow landslide in the Alki area of Seattle, Washington.
    By S. Debray and W.Z. Open-File Report 01-0357, 2001. Savage.
  • Shoreline Aerial Photos. From WA Dept of Ecology .
  • Map of Lake Washington submarine landslides. Provided by Bob Karlin, from a paper in review in GSAB.
  • Map of landslide distributions in Lake Sammamish. Provided by Bob Karlin, Mark Holmes, Tom Pratt (unpublished).
  • Finite element analysis of the Woodway landslide. Provided by Rex Baum (USGS).
  
  
  • Available at Workshop
  • Slope Stability Analyses hard copy. From Coastal Zone Atlas of Washingtion, published by
    WA Dept of Ecology.
  • Geology Maps, 100K Scale. Tim Walsh (WA DNR) will provide:
  • Color originals
  • Black and white copies
  • Digital GIS accessibility
  • Maps of landslide distributions in Puget Sound. Bob Karlin, UNR.
  
  

• Modeling Results

  • NOAA TIME Center: Seattle Inundation due to Seattle Fault earthquake
  • Description of Seattle Fault Source
  • Geometry of Seattle Fault Source
  • Vertical Displacement in Puget Sound
  • Vertical Displacement in Elliott Bay
  • Animation (in QuickTime® format)
  • Maximum Inundation Map
  • Maximum Current Speed Map
  • Effect of Structual Heterogeneity on Static Vertical Displacement from Rupture on the Seattle Fault. Eric Geist, USGS.
  
  

• Workshop Invitees List and Contact Information

• Workshop Organizing Committee:

  George Crawford	WA State Emergency Management Div.
  Frank González (Chair)	NOAA TIME Center
  Mark Holmes	U. Washington
  Hal Mofjeld	NOAA TIME Center
  Brian Sherrod	U.S. Geological Survey
  Vasily Titov	NOAA TIME Center
  Angie Venturato	NOAA TIME Center
  Tim Walsh	WA State Dept. Natural Resources
  Craig Weaver	U.S. Geological Survey