NOAA NCTR experimental research product
Not an official forecast
The Kermadec tsunami was generated by a Mw 7.6 earthquake (29.539°S 176.340°W ), at 19:03:18 UTC, 163 km (101 miles) E of Raoul Island, Kermadec Islands (according to the USGS). Forecast results shown below were created with the NOAA forecast method using MOST model with the tsunami source inferred from DART® data.
The graphics display forecast results, showing qualitative and quantitative information about the tsunami, including tsunami wave interaction with ocean floor bathymetric features, and neighboring coastlines. Tsunami model amplitude information is shown color-coded according the scale bar.
- Model amplitudes calculated with the MOST forecast model. Filled colors show maximum computed tsunami amplitude in cm during 24 hours of wave propagation.
- Propagation Animation
- Model-data comparison plot (large size)
Comparison of the July 6, 2011 Kermadec tsunami recorded at DART 54401. The DART model time series are obtained from the pre-computed generation/propagation forecast database in real time, after fitting models to tsunami records from the closest DART (54401).
Tang, L., V. V. Titov, and C. D. Chamberlin (2009), Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C12025, doi:10.1029/2009JC005476. [PDF version]
Titov, V.V. (2009): Tsunami forecasting. Chapter 12 in The Sea, Volume 15: Tsunamis, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA and London, England, 371–400.
Wei, Y., E. Bernard, L. Tang, R. Weiss, V. Titov, C. Moore, M. Spillane, M. Hopkins, and U. Kânoğlu (2008): Real-time experimental forecast of the Peruvian tsunami of August 2007 for U.S. coastlines. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L04609, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032250. [PDF Version]
Disclaimer: The forecasts on these pages show the results of ongoing research to enhance tsunami science and to improve NOAA operational tsunami forecasts. These products were developed during or shortly after the tsunami event, are intended for research use, and are not an official forecast. They should not be used as the basis of any public or private policy decisions. Please contact NCTR to find if there are more detailed follow-on analysis results.
NOAA Public Affairs Monica Allen - 301-734-1123
NWS Public Affairs Susan Buchanan - 301-713-0622
Need a file viewer/reader?