NOAA NCTR experimental research product
Not an official forecast
Modeling Results - Propagation Animation
Web Link Compilation | Model and Data Comparison Plots
: Listen to the Honshu earthquake & Historical Japan Tsunami
The Honshu, Japan tsunami was generated by a Mw 9.0 earthquake (38.322°N, 142.369°E ), at 05:46 UTC, 130 km (80 miles) E of Sendai, Honshu, Japan (according to the USGS). In approximately 25 minutes, the tsunami was first recorded at DART® buoy 21418. Forecast results shown below were created with the NOAA forecast method using MOST model with the tsunami source inferred from DART® data.
The graphics display forecast results, showing qualitative and quantitative information about the tsunami, including tsunami wave interaction with ocean floor bathymetric features, and neighboring coastlines. Tsunami model amplitude information is shown color-coded according the scale bar.
- Model amplitudes calculated with the MOST forecast model. Filled colors show maximum computed tsunami amplitude in cm during 24 hours of wave propagation. Black contours show computed tsunami arrival time.
Alternate plots below:
- New! Global maximum amplitude plot
Model and DART® buoy data / tide gage data comparison
- Comparison of the March 11, 2011 Honshu tsunami recorded at DARTs and sea-level gages in the Pacific and along U.S. coastlines with model forecasts. The DART model timeseries are obtained from the pre-computed generation/propagation forecast database in real time, after fitting models to tsunami records from two closest DARTs (21418 and 21401). The flooding forecast models (high-resolution inundation models for coastal locations) were run in real time before the tsunami reached the locations shown. The model data for Hawaii, the U.S. West Coast and South America show 3 to 15 minute early arrival (less than 2.5% error accumulated during the propagation simulation). The plots show model data for those locations with time shifted later for comparison purposes. (see References, below).
- New! Google maps access to model/data comparison plots
- Comparison of model data with DART® data
|21418: 450 NM NE of Tokyo, Japan
||46402: 240 NM South of Dutch Harbor, AK
||43412: 240 NM Southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
|21401: Near 209 NM SE of Kuril Islands
||46403: 230 NM Southeast of Shumagin Island, AK
||43413: 360 NM South-Southwest of Acapulco, Mexico
|21413: 690 NM SE of Tokyo, Japan
||46408: NW Pacific South of AK
||46404: 230 NM West of Astoria, OR
|21419: 209 NM SE of Kuril Islands
||46409: 240 NM Southeast of Kodiak, AK
||46407: 210 NM West of Coos Bay, OR
|21414: 184 NM SW of Adak, AK
||46410: 330 NM Southeast of Anchorage, AK
||46411: 260 NM Northwest of San Francisco, CA
|21415: 175 NM S of Attu, AK
||51407: 140 NM Southeast of Honolulu, HI
||46412: 190 NM West-Southwest of San Diego, CA
|21416: 240 NM SE of Kamchatka Peninsula
||32401: 260 NM West-Southwest of Arica Chile
||51406: 2900 NM Southeast of Hawaii
|52402: 790 NM Northwest of Kwajalein
||32411: 710 NM West-Southwest of Panama City, Panama
||51425: 370 NM NW of Apia, Samoa
|52403: 430 NM Southwest of Truk
||32412: 630 NM Southwest of Lima, Peru
||55012: STB Coral Sea
|52406: 450 NM Northeast of the Guadalcanal
||32413: 1000 NM WNW of Lima, Peru
||55023: STB Coral Sea
Tang, L., V. V. Titov, and C. D. Chamberlin (2009), Development, testing, and applications of site-specific tsunami inundation models for real-time forecasting, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C12025, doi:10.1029/2009JC005476. [PDF version]
Titov, V.V. (2009): Tsunami forecasting. Chapter 12 in The Sea, Volume 15: Tsunamis, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA and London, England, 371–400.
Wei, Y., E. Bernard, L. Tang, R. Weiss, V. Titov, C. Moore, M. Spillane, M. Hopkins, and U. Kânoğlu (2008): Real-time experimental forecast of the Peruvian tsunami of August 2007 for U.S. coastlines. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L04609, doi: 10.1029/2007GL032250. [PDF Version]
Disclaimer: The forecasts on these pages show the results of ongoing research to enhance tsunami science and to improve NOAA operational tsunami forecasts. These products are experimental in nature and care must be taken when using such products as they are intended for research use. They should not be used as the basis of any public or private policy decisions..
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