What are the input parameters for the MOST model of tsunami propagation and run-up and how does that support warning and forecasting?
The input parameters for the
(Method of Splitting Tsunami) model can be set in several ways that depend on the application. The location and magnitude of the earthquake are used in a ground deformation model to estimate the vertical displacement of the ocean floor. This displacement is set to the initial displacement of the sea surface, which is then the initial condition for the tsunami wave in the MOST model. This is how it is run in a research mode. A set of earthquakes is used in doing a tsunami risk assessment for communities, including the maximum credible event for designing evacuation strategies.
Operationally during a possible tsunami event, a sequence of different MOST simulations is run (more exactly: scaled from a pre-computed database of MOST model runs) as new information about the earthquake and tsunami become available. The first set is obtained from the earthquake alone. This process has been incorporated into the first version of the SIFT tsunami forecasting system that is being delivered to the U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers this Spring.
Once actual observations of the tsunami become available at
DART buoy stations, the tsunami source (and hence the earthquake parameters) are adjusted to match the observed tsunami. These new parameters are then used to make updated coastal tsunami forecasts for potential impact sites. This
under development will include the capability to run forecast inundation models (high-resolution MOST models that have been optimized for computation speed) for selected coastal communities, in order to get the best quality forecasts at those sites. This system has been delivered to the Tsunami Warning Centers.
Authority: Dr. Hal Mofjeld, NCTR, May 3, 2006, NOAA Center for Tsunami Research
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